Lake Ontario Real-time
The Lake Ontario Real-Time model provides predictions of water levels and wave characteristics across Lake Ontario. The model is forced using high resolution spatially varied wind and pressure fields from the High resolution Deterministic Prediction System. Simulations start every 6 hours, providing 48 hour forecasts, with approximately a 5 hour delay between model start time and updated online results.
The workflow diagram of the automated processes in python is shown below.
Input
Simulations are forced using meteorological inputs from the High resolution deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) by Environment Canada. This provides hourly wind speeds and atmospheric pressure predictions with a spatial resolution of 2.5 km.
HRDPS provides forecast data out to 48 hr from the forecast start time, every 6 hrs (ie. 00hr, 6hr, 12 hr, and 18hr)
Time series plot of the total predicted HRDPS wind speeds are compared to observed wind data measured at various locations in Lake Ontario can be found here!
Bathymetric Data
Bathymetric data used in the model combines NOAAs 3 arcsecond (~90 m) bathymetric data with the ETOPO1 Global relief model.
Model
A 2-way coupled Delft3D FLOW + SWAN model is used. The model uses a 2D, depth-averaged approach, and a structured curvilinear grid, with a resolution gradually ranging between 300-400 m for the FLOW grid, and 500-700 m for the SWAN grid. Online coupling between the the two modules occurs every 60 minutes. A model time step of 1 minute is used.
Validation
Real time water level and wave data are compared to model results. Data is available from the following sources:
1. Environment Canada:
2. NOAA Tides and Currents
3. National Data Buoy Center